Ukrainian crisis: the European Union maintains a wait-and-see attitude

The attitude of Europe, in the face of the Ukrainian crisis, remains marked by the maximum use of diplomacy, even after the increase in the presence of the Russian military on the border between the two countries. The signals, which Brussels has sent to the Kremlin, are of support for a negotiated solution between the parties, which must exclude any military solution, but, at the same time, the firm will to proceed with particularly harsh sanctions has been reaffirmed, if Moscow operates a aggression against Kiev. The president of the European Council reiterated the solidarity of the European Union to the Ukrainian president, assuring the reaction of Brussels to continue to guarantee peace, world stability and common security, concepts which coincide with European values; however, it will be necessary to verify whether these declarations will be followed by concrete steps, which are announced to be necessary even before a possible invasion of the Ukrainian country. The situation, in fact, after the hope of a positive ending, seems to have worsened again in an area of ​​the border about 200 kilometers long. Numerous explosions, about 500, signal the start of bombing in the disputed territories, where there would also have been fighting involving the non-regular forces flanking Russia. The Atlantic Alliance has repeatedly warned of the possibility that Russia could take any opportunity to justify the invasion as a pretext, to the point of envisaging the construction of false attacks against its own military. The current context of border fighting, albeit with irregular troops, could be the decisive pretext to complete the invasion of Ukraine, also to overcome the problem of rising temperatures, which constitutes a significant obstacle to the movements of heavy and armored vehicles in the Kremlin. At the moment, however, the European Union has not judged the situation of the recorded fighting, such as to raise the level of the diplomatic confrontation and therefore not to activate sanctions against Moscow, sanctions, which according to the current regulation, must be approved unanimously and despite the convictions of the High Representative of European Foreign Policy regarding the compactness of the Brussels response, this result does not seem so obvious. The doubts could concern the Hungarian country and Germany itself did not appear too convinced to take clear positions against Putin. The weapons that the Union intends to use concern sanctions capable of targeting financial and technological sectors, in addition to the blocking of movement of Russian businessmen, who usually operate within the territory of the Union. It remains to be verified whether the conviction of the European leaders, of being able to hit Russia very hard, is true; certainly the Russian economy appears to be in difficulty, but it is necessary to carefully evaluate what Putin’s expectations are regarding a result that can guarantee to stop the advance of the Atlantic Alliance up to the borders of the territory of Moscow: a political victory is more important, albeit thanks to a military statement, or not yet compromising the situation of an economy in a state of crisis; It will be important to see how public opinion in the country could react, however sensitive to nationalistic aspects, but tested by financial and economic difficulties. It is clear that the European leadership is focusing its strategy on this second point, but this does not seem to be enough for effective action; even before this strategy of sanctions, a solution must be offered that includes an honorable way out for Putin, without this being perceived as a political defeat. Finding a satisfactory solution for all the parties involved does not seem easy: Putin, who as usual acted by raising the level of the clash too much with frankly inadmissible requests, slipped alone into a situation with no apparent way out, where the result , beyond any possible final result, it could still be harmful to the head of the Kremlin. If the accession of Ukraine is not currently part of the plans of the Atlantic Alliance, it could be a point that, at least, could ease the tension, even if only momentarily and represent the starting point for negotiations without the impending military threat. , however, this may not be enough, as sanctions may not be enough and, at that point, it would be necessary to be ready for the consequences of a conflict that will affect the whole of geographic Europe.