The implications of the agreement between Israel and the United Arab Emirates

The main meaning of the agreement, which formalizes an already existing but unofficial situation, between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, is to anticipate Trump’s possible defeat and prevent a new Iranian nuclear deal, which could be part of Biden’s plans in the role of the new president of the United States. Israeli national security is worth much more than expansion into the West Bank, which has only been temporarily suspended. The interest in preparing for a possible return of Iran to the diplomatic scene has been shared with the Sunni states of the Gulf for some time, but an official agreement represents a significant novelty. First, because it probably represents only a first episode to which others will follow: in fact, there are great possibilities that Tel Aviv will also enter into diplomatic relations with Oman and Bahrain, where the headquarters of the US fifth fleet is located; the two countries expressed their congratulations to the United Arab Emirates for the agreement which represents a strengthening of regional stability. Netanyahu himself defined the informal alliance that is becoming official between Israel and the Gulf monarchies as the region’s peace circle. In fact, the surprise for these agreements is not justified because it represents the natural evolution of relations that have been established and developed with the common denominator of creating an alliance from an anti-Iranian perspective. At the moment Tehran is suffering from American sanctions and is also in difficulty due to the Lebanese question, which sees Hezbollah, its main ally, in sharp decline even among the Shiites of Lebanon. A change at the top of the White House could improve the Iranian condition, even if it is not taken for granted, with a different direction of US foreign policy: this scenario obliges Israel and the Gulf states to formalize their respective relations to facilitate speed and coordination of any diplomatic responses that may become necessary. Apparently to have the greatest disadvantages, at least in the immediate future, would be the Palestinians who see the Arab world’s hostility against Israelis officially broken; in reality Tel Aviv already has agreements with Egypt and Jordan and for some time the Sunni leaders in the Gulf have only maintained a facade attitude towards the Palestinian question, in favor of a more pragmatic and functional conduct to their most immediate and direct interests . A further target of the agreements, in addition to the aforementioned Iran, would also be Turkey, which is proposing itself as a Sunni alternative to the Gulf monarchies, to politically guide the Sunni Islamic faithful. It is no mystery that Erdogan has for some time been trying to expand Turkish influence, trying to replicate the experience of the Ottoman Empire in a modern version. Indeed, Ankara did not welcome the news of the agreement, but its reaction, based on the betrayal of the Palestinian cause, reveals its hypocrisy and the few arguments available; Turkey, once close to Israel, is seeing an increase in the political weight of Gulf diplomacies capable of bringing the Israeli country to its side, certainly for a common advantage. But internally to the protagonists of this agreement not everything is without problems: on the Arab side the protagonism of the prince of the United Arab Emirates signals the growth of a new political protagonist with respect to the position of the crown prince of Saudi Arabia, compromised in various events damaging the prestige, however this contrast could complicate the ties with Israel of all the Gulf countries, even if it is more likely that common geopolitical interests will prevail. On the Israeli side, apart from the problems with the Palestinians, the opposition of the settlers and the parties that support them must be recorded for having interrupted the process of annexation of the settlements, the only electoral program that has allowed Netanyahu his political longevity, despite the various judicial problems. However, the right-wing parties that support the settlers seem to become more marginal in the interests of national security and the apparent turnaround of the Israeli president seems to be yet another move of great political experience.