Italy from a country most damaged in new relations with Russia to a possible protagonist in the case of diplomatic negotiations

The Russian invasion of Ukraine changes Moscow’s international relations with European countries; in particular with Rome with which Russia, despite its respective alignment on opposite fronts, has always been characterized by a good understanding. Only two years have passed since the beginning of the pandemic and the Russian army convoy with medical supplies, destined for one of the most affected northern Italian centers, allowed Putin to reap an excellent result in terms of image. But this was only one of the latest examples of a relationship based on Italian pragmatism, based on its own cultural and commercial nature, which has always exercised a strong capacity for attraction towards Russians. Historically this relationship, pursued even though Rome has always been a great ally of Washington, has also been maintained in the Cold War, with industrial collaborations and thanks to the presence of the strongest Western Communist Party. More recently, these ties have also been maintained by progressive governments, capable of obtaining important energy supplies and opening increasingly intense commercial channels in the genre of luxury, tourism and food. More recently, ties with Putin have developed with the sovereign parties, also due to the Russian president’s strategy of wanting to divide the European Union, however this has not prevented a particularly important link with the government in office, where, moreover, the party of the Northern League, which has always had close ties with Putin’s party, about large supplies of Russian gas. The Italian economy depends on Russian gas for about 45% of the total, which for now are insured, despite Rome’s decision to support the European Union and the West in sanctions against the Kremlin. Despite the conversion plans towards cleaner energy and the contracts for new supplies of liquid gas from the United States, the concern in the social and productive fabric is very high. In addition to economic sanctions against Russia, Italy has engaged in a very vast program of military supplies to the Ukrainian military, which includes anti-aircraft missiles, anti-tank missiles, machine guns of various ranges and ammunition, which could greatly complicate the advance of military forces of Moscow. The combination of dependence on Russian gas with military supplies and sanctions could cause a higher cost for Italians, compared to other member countries of the European Union. In reality, the Italian position was not immediately so clear-cut, precisely because of the fears of the various economic sectors involved in the export to Russia; the particular sensitivity of the government in office, led by the former president of the European Central Bank, towards the economy has led to fears that Rome could have had a less harsh attitude towards Russia, in reality the profoundly pro-European and Atlantic spirit of the government structure, made it possible to overcome these obstacles represented by the prospect of certain losses for the national economy. As far as gas supplies are concerned, however, it is a calculated risk: Italy needs Russian gas, but Russia needs even more to sell it, especially after it has been subjected to the harsh regime of sanctions, on the other hand. Putin’s behavior has had the positive effect, but not for Russia, of compacting a European Union, which is now more united than ever and which could prove even more inclined to allow budget elasticity for those who engage in sanctions and policy against Russia and in the reception of Ukrainian refugees. The cornerstones of the Union’s foreign political action remain Paris and Berlin, but Rome comes immediately after and due to previous relations with Moscow, it could be decisive in a possible negotiation phase to resolve the conflict, as, moreover, it publicly acknowledged the Russian ambassador to Italy. The firmness of Rome in condemning, rightly, Russia has therefore never been in question, and indeed it is strengthened precisely by the volume of business destined to fall for the Italian coffers, however for the Italian country a leading role could be ready. plan if the Union wants to commit itself, despite being a biased protagonist for the support provided to Kiev, when it will finally have to pass the word from arms to the negotiating table.