Behind the confrontation between France and Turkey

The issue of the cartoons on Muhammad risks triggering a sort of war of religion and civilization, which hides, however, a geopolitical confrontation that goes beyond the bipolar relationship between France and Turkey, but which involves geopolitical reasons, the confrontation between countries in the same area Sunni and, not least internal problems of the Turkish country. Despite these analyzes, which are necessary, it is however necessary to point out that no Muslim country has expressed solidarity with the French professor who was beheaded by a Chechen extremist. This consideration cannot fail to lead to reflections on the desire to direct towards a possible cultural clash which aims to solicit the support of the popular classes of Islamic countries in order to gain support; a strategy that applies above all to Turkey in difficulty due to its internal economic situation, but also useful for other countries such as Pakistan or Iraq where the governments in office are experiencing various difficulties. The strategy is also useful in trying to destabilize the French country by fueling the extreme right-wing opposition, but this could also have serious repercussions for the Islamic faithful on French soil. Paris must be very careful not to fall into this trap which would provide further arguments to the Islamic front. An unprecedented alliance is underway against France between Sunni Turkey and Shiite Iran, which seem to want to take advantage of the opportunity to put Saudi Arabia in difficulty. Between Tehran and Riyadh, the reasons for the tensions are known and refer to the search for supremacy between Shiites and Sunnis, while the confrontation between Turkey and Arabia focuses on the confrontation within the Sunni side. Here too, religion is a very present element, but only because it is a means of political domination, which the Ottoman politics of Ankara wants to exploit to undermine the influence that the Arabs have as guardians of Mecca. If Turkey is the main interpreter of the boycott of French products, Turkish products are boycotted precisely from Riyadh, albeit in an unofficial manner, for the alliance between Ankara and Qatar. The boycott of Turkish products carried out by Arabia has spread to other countries close to Riyadh, causing further difficulties for the economy of Ankara, which is already in decline. On the contrary, Saudi Arabia does not practice a boycott of French products precisely because of the desire not to appear aligned with Turkey and thus emphasizing its distance. Erdogan arrogates to himself the right to defend European Muslims, expanding the will to protect the Turks in Germany, but if in this second case it is a sort of direct protection to his compatriots, with the intention of becoming the champion of European Muslims, the the project is more ambitious and could also be understood as an opportunity to influence the Union, an instrument to be combined with the management of refugees traveling the Balkan route. But once again this provoked resentment towards Ankara which materialized with messages of closeness to Macron from Germany and Italy. Specifically, the confrontation between Ankara and Paris is taking place to contain the advance in their respective areas of influence: Turkey, in fact, has worked to strengthen political, economic and military cooperation with Algeria, Mali, Niger and Tunisia, countries that France has always considered it as its exclusive area of ​​action in foreign policy. Paris reacted to Turkish interference by siding with Cyprus and Greece, the object of Turkish maneuvers in the eastern Mediterranean, sending military ships to the area and increasing the supply of weapons to Athens. The respective deployment in Libya alongside the factions confronting each other in the civil war of the North African country contributes to the confrontation between the two sides. The protagonism of Erdogan remains, however, a danger, which deserves greater attention and commitment on the side of France by the European Union, both with diplomatic solutions and with military support, also to protect Greece and Cyprus, members of Brussels. . The sanctions path could be the first to be implemented to contain Turkish action, despite the possible blackmail of migrants to Brussels. Even from the US elections, answers will have to arrive about the Turkish attitude within the Atlantic Alliance and the real intentions of the administration that will take office in the White House, if with Trump there should be no changes, with Biden it is possible to focus more on allies Europeans and a lower tolerance towards external forces, such as the purchase of arms from Russia, which have characterized the Turkish attitude since Erdogan was president. In any case, the confrontation between Ankara and Paris has a lot of negative potential that all actors should contain to prevent the situation from escalating.