On Ukraine, China evaluates US behavior, for the future of Taiwan and trade disputes

That the invasion of Ukraine took place after the end of the Chinese Olympic Games was no coincidence: Putin risked a failure of the action due to adverse weather conditions for heavy vehicles, in order to keep the promise made to the Chinese leader and in homage to the alliance that is developing between the two countries based on commercial exchanges, first of all on the sale of Russian gas to the Chinese, but above all on the political understanding that is developing regarding the project of a new world order, based on values alternative to those of Western democracies and based on the repression of civil rights. The Chinese’s failure to condemn Russian aggression, which is also taken for granted and widely expected, represents a sort of warning for Taiwan, which has always been in the sights of the Beijing government, which supports the project of a single homeland. The moment could be propitious for an invasion of the island, with the Western states unprepared for Putin’s action to which they have not substantially resisted: these conditions could also be repeated for Taiwan, which nothing could, like nothing Kiev can, to an invasion. by a power so manifestly superior. There are, however, some practical contraindications for China, which highlight the differences with the situation that is developing in Europe. The first of all is that the main objective of Beijing continues to be economic growth and the economic repercussions of an invasion would greatly reduce the Chinese gross domestic product, on whose growth the efforts of the Communist government are concentrated, also due to the contraction of the world growth due to the pandemic. As for the Ukrainian war, Beijing has replaced Russia as Kiev’s first trading partner for the interest in the Silk Road and certainly does not like the current developments even if, perhaps it is estimated that with a pro-Russian government, it could have even greater freedom of movement. About Taiwan, some press media functional to government propaganda have defined the island as the Chinese Donbass, beginning to prepare a sort of preventive justification for a possible military invasion. It is no longer even worth believing that China will not dare to attack Taiwan in order not to undertake an action that is difficult to manage and with consequences that are not easy to predict, precisely because the same thing was believed about Putin, and it has been sensationally denied. It is also true, however, that unlike Ukraine, there are already American soldiers in Taiwan, which makes the scenario more complicated in the event of an attack and also the constant presence of the American navy, both in Taiwan itself and in Korea. of the South and Japan presupposes a direct military commitment, which, combined with presumable sanctions, could complicate a military action much more than for Putin. That of a direct American commitment in the Pacific area is explained by the international doctrine inaugurated by Obama of judging Southeast Asia as more important for the United States, precisely in terms of the ways of communication of goods and because of what it is. Syria has been neglected, there has been a disengagement from the Middle East and Afghanistan and substantially also from Europe, however substantial doubts are legitimate on the real will and ability to conduct a conflict on the part of the current American president, who does not seem intent on taking military action. Be that as it may, the American reaction on Ukraine will be deeply studied by Beijing to undertake strategies, which will not only concern the potential invasion of Taiwan, but also the relations with the USA itself, especially regarding the dossiers that have produced the deepest contrasts between the two countries. An apparent complacency of the Americans, also from the point of view of sanctions against Russia, could authorize Beijing to behave increasingly unscrupulous in trade battles and in relations with other states, both European and African, where China aims to fill the void left from the United States. For Washington a concrete warning to evaluate very well its moves and their consequences on a global level and not just limited to Russia.