Netanyahu’s dangerous strategy

The statement by Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, who said he was against the formation of a Palestinian state after the end of the war, expressed so explicitly, further clarifies the Israeli government’s strategy on the real intention of expansion on the territories left to the Palestinians . Evidently the reassurances that its inhabitants will remain in Gaza, even if decimated, have only been formal; the real risk is that these intentions also concern the West Bank. Netanyahu continues to affirm that the war will still be very long, but it is evidently a wait-and-see tactic, awaiting the outcome of the next American consultations: in fact, a victory for Trump would favor the executive in power in Tel Aviv and would keep the troubles at bay judicial of the Israeli prime minister. The prospect, however, includes a permanent state of war, with the risk of spreading more seriously on multiple fronts and involving more actors, as already happens, but in a more massive manner. This attitude has attracted deep criticism from the USA, according to Biden the Israeli situation can only be normalized with the creation of a Palestinian state, an argument also supported by the Arab states, with Saudi Arabia having placed this condition for the recognition of the state of Israel ; but even just the proposal for a ceasefire was rejected by the Tel Aviv executive, on the grounds that it would represent a demonstration of weakness towards terrorists. Within the rejection of the creation of a Palestinian state, there is also the refusal to give control of Gaza to the Palestinian National Authority. With these premises, however, some questions are legitimate. The first is that the presidential elections in the USA will be held next November: until then, with Biden in office, the distance between Tel Aviv and Washington risks becoming increasingly accentuated and the risk for Netanyahu is to see American support reduce, an eventuality that has never happened in the history of relations between the two countries, which could weaken the leadership in the country and also the military capacity; certainly Biden must carefully calculate how far he can go, so as not to make decisions that have repercussions on his electoral consensus, but the prospect of Israel’s weakening on the international level appears very real. The war in Gaza has caused an expansion of the concrete conflict, which has been able to involve other actors, so much so that the regional conflict situation is now an established fact. The question concerns Israel’s responsibility for the reaction to the events of October 7, in relation to the international sphere. The situation that was created with the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, which caused serious economic damage to international trade, the blatant intervention of Iran, with mutual threats with Israel and the Hezbollah issue, which caused the involvement of Lebanon and Syria, clearly outlined a situation that was serious, but still at a contained level. The worsening has led and will lead to the involvement of actors not yet directly present on the Middle Eastern scene, with an increase in the presence of armaments and military actions, such as to make the situation highly unstable. An accident is not only possible but also highly probable and this could trigger a conflict, no longer through a third party, but with the direct involvement, for example of Israel against Iran; this eventuality appears closer than ever and explicit threats do not help to favor a diplomatic solution. The central question is whether the West and even the whole world can allow a nation to exist with a person of Netanyahu’s type in power, certainly Israel is sovereign within itself, but it has not been able to resolve the judicial situation of a man who remains in power with unscrupulous tactics, which indifferently use the ultra-nationalist far right, wait-and-see tactics, false promises and violent conduct, closer to the terrorist association it wants to fight, rather than that of a democratic state. Israeli public opinion seems to be dominated by this character and the few voices of dissent are not enough to stop this trend. Even though it is legitimate to fight Hamas, the ways are not the right ones, over twenty thousand victims are too high a toll, which hides the intention of an annexation of Gaza, as a new land for the settlers; this scenario would have catastrophic effects, which only international pressure, even with the use of sanctions, and diplomatic activity can avoid. Also because once Gaza has been taken, the passage to the West Bank would only be a consequence, just as total war would be a logical consequence.

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