The implications of the Chinese visit to Russia

The Chinese president’s visit to Moscow is presented by the Beijing media as a trip for peace; in reality this visit has only one value for the two countries involved. China seeks to gain credit as the only subject capable of producing an effort for peace and capable of breaking American hegemony in the international arena; for Russia it is yet another effort to get out of the isolation that the special military operation has caused. From the point of view of possible results, the chances are slim if not none of reaching peace with a sketchy and abstract plan like the Chinese one. The political relevance is represented by the fact that China and Russia appear ever closer, above all in an anti-American function, in the sense of wanting to create a multipolar alternative to Washington’s power; however, this alliance between Moscow and Beijing does not appear equal: Russia needs too much recognition as the main alternative country to the United States and is clearly subordinate to China from every point of view, political, military and, above all, economic. Putin has shown interest in the twelve points of the Chinese plan, declaring himself willing to negotiate; this availability, whose sincerity should be ascertained, hides a combined political calculation, which has, as its ultimate goal, the material aid of China in the form of military supplies. For the moment this does not appear to be happening, while it seems strongly certain that Beijing supplies complementary equipment (such as components and electronic boards), without which the Russian bombs could not function. The Chinese hesitations always remain those of compromising their market shares in the most profitable territories for their products: the USA and the European Union; however, China cannot miss the opportunity to undermine Washington, which it considers, in any case, the main adversary. The peace plan proposed by China, in this sense, represents a novelty because it derogates from the main rule of Chinese foreign policy: that of not interfering in the internal politics of other countries; in fact, if it is true that the pronouncement of respect for national sovereignty seems to move within the general rule, the non-recognition of the Russian invasion cannot fail to be read as an interference, even if not highlighted, precisely in a question of national sovereignty , both towards Ukraine and towards Russia itself; in short, Chinese balancing act cannot convince to an equidistance only announced between the conflicting parties, which is not found in the official document. The attempt is clumsy and also acts against Moscow, which is forced to sell its oil to Beijing at decidedly lower prices, for now receiving only international recognition in exchange and little else. China shows itself to be opportunistic, providing an exemplary lesson both to Western countries, fascinated by the Silk Road project, and to African ones, repeatedly exploited by Beijing’s expansionism. Reality shows a country that should not be trusted, which is also true for Russia, which has now become subordinate to the Asian country. The great suspicion, which goes beyond the contingent situation, is that the Chinese power system wants to continue with the project of affirming its political system as more capable than others, essentially democracy, in developing the economy and strengthening its state: arguments on which Putin and his nomenclature are, for now, certainly in agreement, while the prospect may be different when Beijing collects the credits with Moscow. From the Western point of view, the question will be to contain the alliance, because this is a trade, albeit unbalanced, between Russia and China: diplomatic pressure will have to be exerted on Beijing so that no arms are supplied to Moscow, to avoid increasing capabilities Russian wars and determine prolongations of the conflict; after all, Western and Chinese diplomacies can find common ground on this issue, because war is a block for their respective economies and for Beijing the aspect of economic growth remains central to its political scheme, at the same time for the West this blatant exposure of China, alongside Russia, must be a signal to undertake a work of containment of Beijing’s activism.