The nuclear danger and the evolution of the conflict

The mere threat of a solution, which could include the use of nuclear weapons, opens up completely new scenarios for the Ukrainian war, with phases that could move the conflict away from traditional fighting. The Atlantic Alliance believes a direct response with the use of atomic weapons is remote, in response to a possible tactical nuclear bomb, that is, with a range of about one and a half kilometers, even if it promises very serious consequences for Moscow; on the other hand, the Kremlin has specified several times that the use of atomic devices is foreseen only in the event of invasion of Russian soil, even if the farce referendums have expanded it, incorporating the disputed territory with Kiev. The current phase of the conflict sees, on the one hand, the terrestrial advance of the Ukrainian troops, which proceed in a systematic way in the reconquest of what was conquered by the Russians and on the part of Moscow the massive use of long-range missiles, which are directed to mostly against civil infrastructures, with the clear aim of further exhaustion the population. From an examination of the rockets that hit Ukraine, however, it seems that Moscow is running out of its arsenal of these armaments and this, if on the one hand it can be interpreted as positive news, on the other hand it opens up to the possibility that Russia can use other types of armaments; for now, together with long-range rockets, Iranian-made kamikaze drones are used, which allow great results to be obtained, which thanks to their low cost, allow a great use with an almost safe achievement of objectives. For now, Ukraine has been able to little against these two weapons used together, but the supplies of anti-missile batteries by some European countries and devices capable of altering the operating frequencies of drones, have concrete possibilities to reduce the offensive potential of Moscow on the ground of Kiev. On the ground for now, Russia has only fielded conscripts, subject to forced enlistment, with very little training and no combat experience, whose sacrifice has the sole purpose of preserving the most trained troops. This aspect creates deep discontent in Russia and cases of insubordination multiply in the barracks, which risk compromising central power. This factor, combined with the negative development of the conflict and also the difficulties due to sanctions, could lead to the use of nuclear weapons, however this decision, in addition to military implications, would have even more political consequences of an internal and external nature. The announced end of forced recruitment can be seen in this context, once the figure of 300,000 men has been reached and what seemed to be the intention to give a sort of stop to the conflict, with the aim of maintaining current positions, all done ‘anything but taken for granted. The current Russian objective seems to be to buy time and maintain positions pending a necessary reorganization of the armed forces and their arsenal, the introduction of martial law in the annexed territories, must be read in this sense: to create the conditions for to retreat as little as possible, even in the hope of the arrival of the harsh climate, which would not favor the Ukrainian advance. The impossibility of negotiations for the closure of both sides must not discourage diplomatic action, however difficult, which must proceed for small objectives, such as the exchange of prisoners and the search for phases of truce in the conflict: it is a basic starting point necessary to allow an indirect conversation between the parties, which, in this phase, can only be covered by international organizations or by neutral countries and institutions capable of favoring any relationship between the belligerent countries. The nuclear risk remains the greatest danger, but defusing the claims of countries that are in open violation of international law appears to be an equally fundamental requirement for pursuing world peace, which must be the main objective. The solution of the Ukrainian crisis seems increasingly distant, also because the use of weapons and their supply is an indispensable requirement both for Kiev and for the whole West, which with a defeat of the Ukrainian country would see dangerously close to its borders. the danger of Putin’s Russia. A situation capable of spreading a disastrous conflict to the whole of Europe.

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