The possible Russian tactics and the potential Western responses

Probably the Russian commitment in Syria was not only dictated by geopolitical needs, such as maintaining the only Moscow base in the Mediterranean, by keeping Assad in power, but it was also a preventive exercise to prepare for military action in Ukraine. Certainly, Putin’s intentions and expectations were to quickly conclude the reconnection of all Ukraine under former Soviet influence: a repetition of the subordinate relationship that Belarus provides to the Kremlin; and in fact the plan is still the same: to establish a pro-Russian government in Kiev, which can guarantee that Ukraine maintains absolute distance from the European Union and the Atlantic Alliance. However, despite the overwhelming superiority of the military apparatus, Russia is struggling, on the international level it appears isolated and with devastating internal economic prospects, the European and Western countries have regrouped, overcoming their mutual differences and arriving to massively welcome refugees, thus defusing the Kremlin’s intentions to favor internal disputes over immigration, even if they have had too long a reaction time in the face of events and even China appears more cautious in supporting Putin, so as not to hurt the commercial susceptibility of the market more rich in the world. For their part, the Ukrainians, despite all the contingent difficulties, are putting up a resistance that Russia had not foreseen, indeed the Kremlin expected a welcome from liberators for its troops. The set of these answers from the counterparties, added to the obvious erroneous assessments, if they can lead to positive assessments in the immediate future, cannot however prevent us from analyzing what Putin’s possible next moves will be. If we start from an analysis of the Kremlin tenant, it is difficult to predict a way out that is configured as a political conflict, that is, an agreement that allows Russia to cede the territories of the Donbass and also of the coastal strip may not be enough. in Odessa. Putin has been clear he does not intend to stop, because he considers Ukraine part of Russia and this admission constitutes his program which he has finally explained clearly. The granting of the opening of humanitarian corridors to make civilians flee opens extremely disturbing scenarios, which preclude, in fact, what happened in Syria and especially in the battles for the conquest of Aleppo. Precisely on that occasion, after the abandonment of the city of most of its inhabitants, the Russians, once they entered, gave a display of particular violence and now, strengthened by that experience acquired in the field, the fate of Kiev appears to be the same. On the other hand, reaching at least as far as the conquest of the Ukrainian capital has, for Putin, the meaning of the victory of the conflict, while for the rest of Ukraine, the part towards the west on the border with Poland, a military operation comparable to the current one is more difficult, but for the Kremlin, it will probably be enough to stop in Kiev. In the West, a possible conquest of Kiev by the Russians, moreover obtained with particularly brutal ways, could provoke a reaction that is difficult to predict. The approach to the borders of the Atlantic Alliance and the European Union, of the Russian enemy, who moreover directly threatens the Baltic countries and opposes the entry into the Atlantic Alliance of Sweden and Finland, as well as the European Union of Moldova and Georgia, would further raise the level of the clash, which until now has been limited to sanctions, albeit large, and military supplies for Ukraine. The approach of the front towards the Polish and Romanian border would significantly bring the beginning of the third world war closer. It is now useless to complain about the passive attitude of the European Union and the Atlantic Alliance, which have lost eight years in useless discussions, when they could have managed the Ukrainian question differently with preventive solutions capable of countering Russian plans: now is the time to put in place solutions are put in place that are capable of opposing Moscow, also from a military and not just a political point of view. Of course, immediately admitting Sweden and Finland of the Atlantic Alliance and Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia to the European Union would constitute a political response equivalent to a clear warning in Moscow, but without a military organization and a willingness to directly engage in cases such as the current one. maneuvering is limited. Unfortunately it is bad to say it but the military option is increasingly becoming a necessity and a more probable eventuality.