The international consequences of the return to power of the Taliban

It seems all too obvious to declare that the reconquest of Kabul and of the whole of Afghanistan is one of the heaviest Western defeats and with dangerous repercussions on balances that go beyond regional ones, because they concern the general aspects of terrorism and geopolitical issues. It is a fact that to reach this conclusion it was better not to start even an occupation that resulted in a tragic death toll and literally wasted financial expenses with a retreat that the American military and politicians will have to deal with for years. There is a concurrence of underestimated facts that contributed to an approximate management, which is at the root of the bankruptcy; meanwhile, the initial approach of the US and Great Britain, oriented towards a more military operation, seems to be the tragic repetition of what happened in Iran; on the contrary, the other European allies would have preferred a more peace mission approach, but failed to impose their own vision, playing important but substantially secondary roles. The withdrawal issue was a sort of tacit agreement between the White House, formerly with Trump and then with Biden, with the American public, which by now did not understand the Afghan occupation due to the many deaths between American soldiers and the a lot of public money spent on this long adventure. American politicians have failed, even for their own lack of conviction, to convince the majority of the American population of the need to preside over a state, which in the hands of the Taliban, will become the base of various terrorist groups, which will have their own territory at their disposal for train new generations of terrorists, who will target the West. Underestimating this danger is very dangerous, but by now it will be better to think about adequate countermeasures to contain what threatens to become one of the next most serious emergencies. In this regard, the presence of allies not exactly loyal such as Pakistan must be assessed within the question: relations with the Pakistani government’s Taliban are certain, just as the involvement with Al Qaeda is certain, the terrorist formation that is predicted will have the greatest benefits from the return of the Taliban to power. Some analysts have talked about Biden’s tactic to leave the management of the problem to China: there are no official confirmations or denials, but this thesis appears unlikely, first of all because Beijing’s dogma in foreign policy remains that of not meddling in internal matters. then there are unequivocal signs, which, on the contrary, would demonstrate how China is ready to exploit the American disengagement in its own favor. The first is the historical link with Pakistan, born in an anti-Indian function, according to the Taliban, although they are Sunni Muslims, they have never condemned the persecutions of Beijing against the Uyghurs, the Chinese Muslims. China can, with Pakistani help, offer its technology to a backward country in exchange for a regional peace and the concession to enter Afghan territory with the agreement of mutual non-aggression, plus the prestige resulting from the replacement. of the Americans is considered a matter of prestige for the Chinese, who could also export their political system, more easily into a dictatorship, albeit a religious one. Russia’s attitude will also have to be followed: Moscow is one of the few capitals that does not intend to close its diplomatic representations, precisely to establish friendly ties with the Taliban, considered potential allies against the US. So both China and Russia would like to fill the void left by Washington, precisely in an anti-American function; however the behavior of the Taliban is never linear: at this stage they need foreign resources and international recognition, which certainly cannot come from the West, but once their power is able to settle, the attitude towards potential new allies could undergo variations deriving from their fundamentalist religious vision. The most immediate problem, however, is of a humanitarian nature: the population is going to the end and the threat of famine and very serious health situations is almost a certainty, while the refugee issue represents a further threat to the stability of Europe, which will soon will have to face a mass of refugees among the member states of Brussels, which threatens to trigger new tensions on matters of common competence, but rejected by some states: a problem, which linked to the new terrorist threat can lead to a state of serious crisis in the within the Union.