North Korea in severe food famine, a new possible factor of instability in the Pacific

Kim Jong-un’s public acknowledgment of the gravity of North Korea’s food situation is an alarm not to be underestimated. The head of state of Pyongyang spoke of a very difficult situation for finding food, aggravated by the failure to comply with the production plan in agriculture, also due to damage caused by environmental and climatic issues. Agricultural production is considered essential not only to cope with the already difficult situation in the country but also to try to overcome the emergency linked to the pandemic; in fact, even if, officially, the North Korean country was not affected by the covid, the situation of serious malnutrition and with a health sector not up to the task, it is thought that the victims of the pandemic and also the poor production sector of the country have aggravated a state of affairs already in severe crisis. According to estimates, North Korea has about ten million, out of about twenty-five, of its population suffering from malnutrition and this affects the life of the country and the already compromised production capacity. Pyongyang suffers from a state of backwardness in its production structures, which prevents it from recovering from the crisis, to which must be added the nuclear sanctions, which have severely tested the survival capacity of entire social classes. According to the United Nations, the closure of the borders would have increased the prices of basic products exponentially and the non self-sufficiency of food in the country would have produced a state of severe famine. The food shortage was further increased by contingent climatic factors such as typhoons and heavy rains in the past months of August and September. The general picture is however incomplete due to the scarce access to the news that the regime determines and the few data available come from some humanitarian organizations that have access to it in any case in a partial way. The fact that Kim Jong-un publicly denounced the situation can have several meanings, one of which is incontrovertible: the situation in the country is certainly very serious. The Korean leader may have admitted the gravity of the crisis to hope for an easing of sanctions or to prepare the ground for a request for aid addressed first of all to China, the country’s only ally, but also to the United States. Biden has not yet addressed the problem of relations with North Korea and a form of aid to contain the food crisis could constitute a starting point for the resumption of bilateral relations, however Kim Jong-un has become accustomed to contradictory attitudes and the public recognition of the state of food crisis could also be used to blame that part of the international community responsible for the sanctions. In this perspective, the resumption of nuclear threats and the test launches of intercontinental missiles could take, in the mind of the dictator, new forms of blackmail to obtain advantages. From the point of view of internal politics, despite the serious crisis, a popular uprising capable of overthrowing the regime does not seem possible: the control is too intense and the population is too weak and exhausted to face a revolt, also because any external support is entirely impossible. Help could come in the form of supplies from South Korea, which could fear a huge influx towards its borders, a possibility also feared by China, which does not like the creation of refugee camps on its territory. For the moment, for Beijing, the interest that the Kim Jong-un regime remains in power is prevalent to avoid a union of the two Koreas that could only materialize under Seoul and that would bring the united country into the American orbit. The most logical solution should therefore be the arrival of aid from Beijing, in a quantity sufficient to avert the crisis but not to revive the country altogether, to maintain control of the possibility of replacing the regime with a government increasingly favorable to China. , but more controllable. In the confrontation between Beijing and Washington, every possible point in favor must be maintained and North Korea could become strategic for China if Beijing were able to fully control its moves.

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