The US is close to re-entering the Iranian nuclear deal

The Iranian nuclear treaty, signed in 2015 by Iran, the European Union, Germany and the permanent members of the United Nations: USA, China, France, England and Russia was intended to prevent the proliferation of nuclear weapons in the Islamic Republic, guaranteeing Tehran less pressure from the economic sanctions already imposed by Washington. With the election of Trump, the US reversed its behavior by adopting the unilateral abandonment of the treaty, with the consequent reinstatement of new energy and financial sanctions against Iran and against those who would have maintained commercial relations with Tehran. The change in American attitude, conditioned by Trump’s strategic proximity to Israel and Saudi Arabia, was characterized by the so-called maximum pressure strategy, which, according to the former president of the United States, should have led to the elimination of the will to possess Iranian nuclear weapons. , through a tougher sanctions policy. In reality, Tehran, despite being subjected to a particularly heavy situation due to the increase in inflation, the depreciation of its currency and a severe recession, caused by the attitude of the White House, has undertaken a policy of enrichment of uranium, developing a technology, which, although it has not yet been able to arrive at the creation of the atomic bomb, has created serious apprehension, both regionally and globally. The failure of Trump’s US strategy, and of his Israeli and Saudi allies, also included the raising of the level of tension caused by the attacks in which Iranian personalities involved in research programs for uranium enrichment died. The new American President Biden, right from the election campaign, has included in his foreign policy program the possibility of the US re-entry into the Iranian nuclear agreement, negatively evaluating the consequences of the exit which resulted in an international isolation of the United States and in the greater precariousness of regional balances. Biden has called for a change in the preventive attitude of the Iranians, with a reduction in nuclear activity, in exchange for which Iran has proposed a first reduction in sanctions, as a tangible sign of good intentions for the continuation of the negotiations. To this end, the resumption of dialogue between Iranian officials and the Atomic Research Agency will also be essential to facilitate inspections of nuclear power plants; to this end, a series of meetings will start starting from next April to mutually establish the rules of inspections; meanwhile, the Iranian president has autonomously decided to suspend operations for the enrichment of uranium, which led to the withdrawal of the no-confidence motion of some European countries against Iran, precisely at the Atomic Agency. The signs of détente seem to indicate the possibility of the practical resumption of the agreement, thanks also to the impetus of the action of states such as Germany and Russia, which have set out to restore the situation prior to Trump’s rise to the White House. however the positive development could only be guaranteed by the permanence of Biden or in any case of a Democrat in the highest US office. As demonstrated, in fact, by Trump’s absurd behavior, the unilateral withdrawal from the agreement did not entail any sanction for which this withdrawal carried out, contravening the signature and the commitments undertaken by his own, without an ascertained violation by Tehran, but only for a different political evaluation of the agreement itself. This situation, therefore, can guarantee four years of maintenance of the agreement, but cannot prevent the situation that has arisen with Trump. Despite this consideration, which must in any case be kept in mind, it will be necessary to favor a different approach with Iran in this period of time, allowing its economy to grow, in order to favor the creation of a network of ties, both diplomatic and commercial, capable of guaranteeing a different way of considering the atomic weapon by the Iranians. If Tehran adheres to respect for nuclear non-proliferation throughout this period, it will achieve sufficient credibility not to provoke a unilateral withdrawal, even in the face of a re-election of Trump or an emulator of him. While substantial differences and contrasts in foreign policy with the West remain, the goal of not having a new atomic bomb in such a delicate region of the world must be achieved with absolute priority.