London’s unresolved issues after leaving Europe

The agreement reached in extremis between the European Union and the United Kingdom, beyond the opportunist statements of the British premier, who underlined how the bond between the two parties will still remain from an emotional, historical, cultural and strategic point of view, marks the end of the London’s troubled process of leaving the project of united Europe and represents a failure for both sides, which only time will tell what the real effects will be and the relative advantages and disadvantages. The triumphalist declarations coming from London have only a political foundation, naturally functional to Brexit, thanks to the resumption of full sovereignty in London, which without the often unjustified advantages granted by Brussels will have problems of a different nature on the economic level already in the short term. period, but which may become more serious in the medium and long term and cannot be resolved by small bilateral agreements, such as the recent trade pact between London and Ankara. Although the approval of the text agreed with Brussels is very probable, the large part of the population opposed to leaving Europe is represented by the split present in Labor, which, although officially in favor, must clash with strong internal opposition, due to the ‘agreement considered highly unfavorable for the workers, by the Scottish National Party, where the issue of leaving the United Kingdom has returned to the fore precisely because of the abandonment of the Union, by the Liberal Democratic Party and finally by the Unionist Democratic Party. The major disagreements, those that could give more problems, concern the question of fishing, which has kept negotiations blocked for a long time, where the presence of Union fishing vessels in English waters is still considered excessive, a factor that is still perceived as an interference. too strong on British sovereignty; Furthermore, the problem of exports from the United Kingdom is present and very much felt, which have been a much discussed matter since 1973, the year of entry into the European Economic Community, if Brussels intends to apply European regulations, situations of lack of congruity could arise, which would damage definitely the export business. These conditions have fostered in the sector a sense of mistrust in the government, which is accused of lack of commitment on these issues and, essentially, of having betrayed the entire export production sector in order to achieve the result of Brexit more quickly. The greatest weight in the British economy is represented by the financial services sector, an advanced service sector that has prospered thanks to European integration; currently the British stock exchange will be considered in the same way as the main foreign stock exchanges, such as New York or Singapore, no longer enjoying the advantages guaranteed by Europe: the real danger is that on this state of affairs there will not be the change desired by London and this would reduce the turnover of the national financial sector is significantly, which would certainly have heavy repercussions on the national gross domestic product. Finally, the Scottish question is the real danger, because it could favor a dissolution of the United Kingdom, starting from the Scottish territory, which could generate a ripple effect with implications for Wales and Northern Ireland as well. The permanence of Edinburgh in the United Kingdom was determined, albeit with little difference, precisely by the guarantee of permanence in the European Union, once this condition is no longer valid, a new referendum would probably have a different result; for this very reason London refuses a new popular consultation on the subject, a decision reinforced by polls that give 60% of the Scottish electorate in favor of independence. In addition to the traditional need for autonomy, the Scottish public is dissatisfied with the treatment that local products directed to Europe will suffer as a result of the English devolution. With the Scottish parliamentary elections scheduled for 2021, a result strongly favorable to the separatists would put the London government in serious difficulty. As regards the examination that the European Parliament has reserved for itself from the reading of the approximately two thousand pages of the text of the agreement, which will be examined starting from the first days of January, there are several unknowns on the approval due to the unfavorable judgments on the agreement due to the feeling of too many concessions to London, especially from Paris. The possibility of a “No deal” is not completely averted: on both sides, but in perspective the problems in London seem too many for an easy path, even if approved by both parties.