The agreement between Morocco and Israel threatens the stability of Western Sahara and is another trap for Biden

The umpteenth deal of an expired administration leaves heavy issues as a legacy to the new tenant of the White House and imposes a series of economic and political obligations on him, which may not be shared. The fourth Arab state that agrees to establish relations with Israel, thanks to American mediation, after the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Sudan is Morocco, which obtains the recognition of its sovereignty over Western Sahara, the former Spanish colony abandoned by Madrid in 1975. . To achieve diplomatic success with the United Arab Emirates, the US has undertaken to finance the Emirati army with a rearmament program costing 19,100 million euros, for Bahrain the cost is political to favor relations with the United Arab Emirates. Saudi Arabia, while for Sudan it is a commitment that concerns both aspects, being the promise, not yet materialized, to lift Washington’s sanctions against the African country, which had been inflicted to strike the previous dictatorial regime. For Rabat, the advantage is that sovereignty over Western Sahara is recognized, it does not matter if, for now, this recognition comes only from the United States, the only country in the international community to carry it out; Trump has spoken expressly that the solution of the Moroccan government is the only viable proposal in the search for a lasting peace process. This appreciation allows Morocco to overcome the 1991 agreements, signed with the Polisario Front at the United Nations, which provided for a referendum for the self-determination of the populations of Western Sahara. This could aggravate a crisis situation resumed on 12 November last, with a confrontation between the Moroccan army and independence activists, after twenty-nine years of truce. It should be remembered that Western Sahara is the largest non-independent territory on the planet and the self-proclaimed Sahrawi Arab Republic has the recognition of 76 nations and the African Union and holds observer status at the United Nations. It is understandable that Trump’s tactic aims to divide the African Union and leave Biden a serious responsibility, also because the decision in favor of Morocco interrupts a line that the US had long held good on the issue. If Biden decides to endorse Trump’s decision, it would go against American diplomatic circles on the contrary, a revocation of the recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara, would imply a cooling in relations between Rabat and Tel Aviv. The proof that uncertainty also reigns in Morocco, beyond the declarations of satisfaction, is that for now Rabat does not intend to open any diplomatic representation in Israel, as if to await the developments of the new American foreign policy. A further reason, then, is the attitude to have with the Palestinians, who immediately appeared very angry. Morocco immediately specified that it does not intend to change its favorable attitude on the solution of a territory and two states, incompatible with Netanyahu’s vision. The Israeli premier at the moment seems to be the real winner, bringing a new agreement with an Arab state as his personal victory, in a very difficult moment on the home front, where the country risks a fourth political election in a short time. Trump continues to play for himself, sacrificing US foreign policy for his own purposes in a moment of handover: what the outgoing president considers successful is the tactic of leaving a very difficult situation to manage for what will have to be politics democratic foreign exchange, with the attitude of several allied states potentially negative with the new president. The plan is broad and aims, first of all, to create a network of states linked to the old president in view of a possible reappointment in four years, leaving difficult situations for the new tenant of the White House, which presuppose the fact of leaving the decisions unchanged. existing, with the opposition of the Democratic Party, or vice versa to overturn them, but having to face the aversion of those who will have to suffer these contrary decisions. A trap that appears to have been created to delegitimize the new president either in front of foreign allies or in front of one’s own electorate. In conclusion, it must be remembered that Trump has not yet formally recognized the defeat and is threatening to lead the most important country in the world towards institutional chaos, which could have very serious repercussions for the whole world.