The situation in Nagorno Karabakh remains uncertain

The hostilities, but it would be more appropriate to call them war, in Nagorno Karabakh began a month ago and the sad accounting of the victims is far from precise, the real and precise number of deaths is not known by the two contenders, Putin’s estimate exists , who spoke of about 5,000 victims; the Armenians added about 1,000 killed among their fighters and 40 civilians, while Azerbaijan admits no deaths among its armed forces but 60 civilians killed by Armenian missiles. Politically, both Armenia and Azerbaijan remain on their respective positions, a factor that denounces how the conflict can become an exhausting war of position. Until now the confrontation in Nagorno Karabakh was defined as a low intensity conflict, characterized by a continuous hostility between the parties, without diplomatic developments but with sporadic clashes; in international public opinion it was not seen as a potentially more dangerous outbreak, that is, the transition to continuous and larger-scale clashes was not expected. This opinion was due to the international stagnation of the confrontation and the entry of any external actor capable of raising the level of the clash was not expected. The situation changed with the Turkish desire to re-establish the situation prior to the collapse of the Soviet empire in favor of the Azeris. The suspicion that in Erdogan’s plan there is a sort of parallelism of the Kurdish situation with that of the Armenians, who historically remain enemies of Ankara; but if for the Kurds on the Syrian border it is, from the Turkish point of view, a threat because it can awaken the sense of belonging of Turkish citizens of Kurdish ethnicity, for Armenia it seems to be more than a symbol to curry favor with public opinion particularly sensitive to the Ottoman policy of the Turkish president, a cause that also serves to distract the Turks from the serious economic problems of their country. Azerbaijan does not want to give up on its intention to reconquer the territory it deems it belongs to, but Armenia is not willing to back down because it sees in its defeat the return of the danger of the Turkish genocide. The analysts’ feeling is that, despite Ankara’s efforts, which have brought an indisputable advantage to the Azeris, this is a conflict that no one can win. This, if possible, aggravates the situation in the war zones, because the international powers do not seem to have any intention of engaging in diplomatic action that does not offer great possibilities for a solution. A development that does not even benefit Turkish ambitions, Ankara is already committed both on the Libyan and Syrian fronts and for a prolonged commitment also in Nagorno Karabakh it does not seem to be sufficiently equipped; if this assessment concerns both the economic and military aspects, on the political level the consequence for Turkey is greater isolation with the increase of its opponents. Despite this situation there have been ceasefire efforts, the problem is that this measure is constantly being violated with mutual accusations of responsibility for resuming the use of weapons. There would be the Minsk Group, structure of the Conference for Security and Cooperation in Europe, which should, as an institutional task, find a peaceful way to the solution of Nagorno Karabakh, since its foundation in 1992. The leadership of the group is composed of a three-party presidency, expressed by France, the USA and Russia; this institution plays a mediator role between the two parties and does not have the powers to stop the conflict, furthermore for the Azeris France should be replaced by Turkey, while for the Armenians a representative of Nagorno should also be included among the members of the negotiations Karabakh, which, however, is not recognized internationally. For these reasons, the Minsk group appears to be an outdated institution, if only for not having avoided the conflict, it would be better for a single level pressure from the USA, and also from the European Union, on Turkey to stop the current situation with the intervention of the blue helmets to ensure the truce. After starting negotiations capable of defining the problem once and for all; certainly with the pandemic underway and the upcoming American elections this hope seems difficult, however getting out of the current situation is necessary to avoid potential negative repercussions on the entire region.