From Nagorno Karabakh the possibility of widening the conflict from local to regional

In the Nagorno-Karabakh War, Armenia appears to be in a disadvantageous position compared to Azerbaijan, which can enjoy the alliance of a Turkey determined to play its role as the new Ottoman protagonist. Nagorno Karabakh has a population of about 150,000 inhabitants, the majority of whom are of Armenian ethnicity and for this very reason is in search of self-determination. For Turkey, it is not a question of having gone to war only to support the Turkish-speaking country of Azerbaijan, but of reiterating, especially for internal public opinion, the will to play a role that goes beyond that of regional power, but also to test Russia’s reaction to an invasion of its living space or zone of influence that Moscow considers its exclusive competence. It should be remembered that Russia is linked to Armenia by a very close alliance, which could force it to intervene personally in the conflict. Erdogan’s strategy appears to be to provoke Moscow’s intentions in the area of ​​regional issues, above all due to the fact that Russia sells arms to Armenia, but, at the same time, also sells them to Azerbaijan, an element that it seems to be actually considering Russian behavior. The Kremlin, in fact, has chosen the diplomatic path very responsibly, obtaining a truce, which, however, does not seem to be fully respected. The allegations of violation are reciprocal, also because they occur in a situation strongly conditioned by mutual aversion that has materialized in thirty years of clashes. The entry into the field of Turkey seems to be an apparently incomprehensible provocation towards Moscow, because the theater of the fighting is adjacent to an area crossed by the Turkish gas pipeline built to transport Russian gas to the rich European market. Beyond the geopolitical reasons, is there any willingness of Ankara to affect economic relations with Moscow to condition the rich gas market? The demand is legitimate for an economy in recession, such as the Turkish one, which must revive the government’s approval in its internal political market, but also bear the costs of its expansionist foreign policy. In turn, Russia has no less serious internal problems, with the decline in support of Putin, who for the first time recorded worrying drops, as well as the difficult relations with an ever growing opposition. In foreign policy, the Belarusian question is of great concern to the Kremlin, already tried by the commitment in Syria that has not aroused enthusiasm among the population and the question of Russian territories in Ukraine, which threatens increasingly significant diplomatic repercussions. Considering these elements, Turkey’s choice to support, if not initiate, the conflict in Nagorno Karabakh can be identified as a strategic element within a dialectic that is not always unambiguous, but which seems to want to verify the real Russian intentions in the region. It should not be forgotten that relations between the two countries are going through more and more phases of sudden rapprochement and separation, according to mutual convenience, which often appear in contrast. It has been verified that Turkey, a member of the Atlantic Alliance, has bought, against the will of the Atlantic Alliance itself, Russian defense apparatuses in open conflict with the policies and directives of Brussels; but then it took sides against the Syrian regime supported by the Russians, because it is Shiite, but not only, by supporting the Islamic fundamentalists Sunni, also used against the Kurds, the main allies of the Americans against the Islamic State. The repeated violations of the interests of the Atlantic Alliance have, however, produced no reaction against Ankara, which felt entitled to proceed on the path of arrogance and violation of international law, practically without sanctions by the international community. Currently, the battlefield of Nagorno Karabakh highlights once again how it is necessary to stop Turkey, starting with very heavy economic sanctions to limit its range of action, also because the consequences, albeit serious of the current conflict, can become even worse , if the war can become a regional clash at the gates of Europe, but also on the Iranian border, with a direct commitment that Russia will not be able to postpone for much longer if the situation is not stabilized, including through the abandonment of the presence of Ankara .

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