The US and the North Korean question

The flight of two American bombers on the Korean peninsula meant to be an answer to Pyongyang’s latest missile test. According to several military analysts, North Korea would now gain technology on long-haul carriers, so much that both Los Angeles and San Francisco could be reached by Pyonyang missiles; The remaining doubts are still on the actual ability to miniaturize atomic weapons, to be installed on intercontinental missiles. Although it is now established that North Korea is a nuclear power, it is, for the time being, only on a conventional basis, but it will not yet be able to have sufficiently small nuclear weapons to be carried by vectors capable of covering such large distances. However, the level of Pyongyang’s technological progress is progressing fast and this makes the threat a threat to the US for becoming an achievable target. Trump does not seem to be able to handle a situation that would put more expert political evidence; In spite of the bombing of the electoral campaign and in the first phase of its presidency, the White House can not go beyond repetitive appeals to Beijing, Moscow and regional allies: South Korea and Japan. The latter appear most concerned about their geographical proximity to North Korea. But the American administration insists on joining the problem not only as an emergency affecting the United States itself, but also to the regional allies, which require greater engagement, even on a military level. This vision has some justification, given precisely from the reduced distance with Pyongyang, yet a hostile act against South Korea or Japan, however, would oblige Americans to intervene. The North Korean nuclear power struggle strategy remains so entrenched in diplomatic action directed at China and Russia, which does not seem to yield appreciable results. If it was not wrong, at the beginning, to turn to Beijing to urge its dissuasive action towards Pyongyang, Trump now has to realize that this road has not yielded the expected results and requires a variation to ward off a dangerous drift. The goal of North Korea is to get to bilateral meetings with Washington, so that its military power is officially recognized. However, this is not a result of the image: the Pyongyang regime aims at a recognition that goes beyond Beijing and includes a number of economic aid that can revitalize the country without the atomic arsenals being disrupted. For the USA, such a concession is not even conceivable, and this favors the current stalemate, but it is time for North Koreans to progress in the miniaturization of atomic weapons. In this scenario there are basically three actors, the US, China and North Korea, who are playing a game on a dangerous improvisation. Trump, contrary to what could be expected and probably recommended by military environments, adopted a cautious attitude, Beijing seems to have decided not to comply with US demands, except with declassified statements and Pyongyang has behaved that seems to follow the way A gambler, trying to bring the US to the limit. This clearly implies a whole range of risks, where military confrontation is only the culmination. However, China’s attitude is necessary, but a reflection, given that regional instability should not benefit Beijing’s trade programs; China provides the perception of wanting to exploit the current state of affairs and, above all, the North Korean attitude, which appeals the United States to try to reach a more favorable situation in Beijing; That is, a US softening on trade issues and the reduction of engagement in a region considered to be an exclusive economic zone by the Chinese. Obama has never ceased to secure his support in Seoul and Tokyo, and indeed considered the region as the new core of American international political action. Trump, on the other hand, conveys a lesser conviction on this subject, and this is the indirect pretext for China to take advantage of this situation. If the US president does not provide a more determined and resolute stance on the importance of the region, it will give a feeling of weakness and disinterest, which will allow other people in the area to increase their political weight, even with non-diplomatic actions.

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