The possible consequences of US sanctions against Russia

There are two lines of thought and even behavior in the United States towards Russia. On the one hand, the traditional aversion, which dates back to the Cold War, due to the identification of the Russian country still as a representative of communism, and, therefore, the denial of American democratic principles, which make it the main antagonist of the USA. In this faction there are the Democrats and also many Republicans, who perceive the not fully democratic government of Putin and look with concern at the growing nationalism favored by Putin, whose goal is to bring Russia back to the role of great world power. To achieve this goal Russia had to leave the subaltern state in international politics, in which it had fallen after the fall of communism; To do this, Putin has had to resort to unscrupulous policies, often in violation of international law and also of the national sovereignty of foreign countries. To implement these policies, recourse was made to the use of armed forces without signs, of actions at the limit of the technological war and of operations alongside dictators as happened with Assad in Syria. One of the Russian objectives was to restore the area of Soviet influence, causing the invasion of Crimea and the issue of Eastern Ukraine. In an adverse international climate, campaigns have been implemented through the most advanced technological means to put down Putin’s political adversaries and, at the same time, encourage those who could potentially become a Moscow ally. Among the poltical opponents Putin has tried to discredit there is the European Union, seen as the main enemy to Russian expansionism and the Democrats in the US, which clearly obstructed the activities of Moscow until Obama was president. Those who have enjoyed the benefits of the Russian information campaigns, have been left of extreme right Europeans, movements against the European Union and most likely the same President Trump. The American magnate who rose to the White House against the wishes of the forecasts and his circle of collaborators, represented the American side in favor of Russia, because it was ruled by Putin. The proximity between the two leaders has manifested itself several times, both in the ways that in the objectives, which are to eliminate the international obstacles for the management of their power, according to their geopolitical view. In this perspective, the project to weaken the European Union, seen by both as the main competitor, is shared equally. However, due to the use of chemical weapons, on the territories of foreign countries, Trump, on the instructions of the State Department, had to hit Russia with sanctions based on a 1991 law, which provides, inter alia, for inspections after 90 days by international organizations for the verification of possible stocks of chemical weapons: if Russia refuses to be subjected to these inspections, sanctions would increase. It is easy to predict that Moscow will not adapt to these provisions and the tension between the two countries will only increase. Trump, in this match, has against almost all his party and can not, therefore, hope that Congress will follow him on his intentions to improve relations with the Kremlin, which, on the contrary, are destined to worsen. On this split between the president and his party, but also with the American institutions, which always perceive Russia as an opponent, can play a game, all within the American country, which can decide the future of Trump as a politician. It seems easy to foresee an acceleration of the investigations into the election as president, favored precisely by the relationship with the Russians, which, even if it did not end with disfavor for Trump, could substantially worsen credibility. We must remember that if Trump enjoys the favor of the masses, especially in the more internal USA, the relationship with the political society and in general with those who occupy the most important positions of the administration is increasingly problematic, despite the substitutions made by the White House in the stations at the top. The issue of sanctions on Russia becomes so crucial for Trump, who seems to have been taken by surprise by this initiative and unprepared to face it.

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