Iran may have the bomb within 14 months

According to estimates by the Institute for Science and International Security, an independent U.S., Iran could end up with the atomic bomb in a maximum period of 14 months, as follows: two to four months for the enrichment of be needed for the construction of the bomb, estimated at about twenty-five kilograms of uranium highly Treaty, and from eight to ten months for the construction material of the bomb. The estimated time coincides with the statement made by the Secretary of Defense, Leon Panetta, who evaluated in about twelve months time to Iran to become a nuclear power, if the decision of the Government of Iran would go in that direction. Once in possession of the necessary amount of enriched uranium, it is believed that for the engineers of the IAEA, it is impossible to detect the progress and advances in the construction of the atomic bomb in the country of Iran. At this point the only way to avoid a preventive war, as repeatedly advocated by Israel, and at the same time prevent the production of nuclear weapons, is to prevent Tehran supplies of uranium. This solution, the only one that can actually prevent a conflict, the consequences of which are not conceivable, however, seems not practicable: despite the restrictions being put on the country of Iran, by most, but not all, of the international community, isolation is not complete and Tehran can take different routes that can assure the supply of raw material for the construction of the device. Likely, therefore, that it will develop, at least in the short term, it will be underground and undeclared war already under way between Israel and Iran, which led through several attacks, the elimination of a number of scholars, on the one hand, and the ‘execution of terrorist acts on the other, in a continuous run of retaliation. On the other hand, the Iranian official attitude is to develop nuclear energy for exclusively peaceful purposes, even if the obstacles to inspections of the IAEA sent have always been a level which will prevent the required examinations, behavior that has fueled suspects who have encroached on the certainty about the true intentions of the country’s growth. If Mahmoud Ahmadinejad continues, however, to maintain its position that does not require any interruption of Iran’s nuclear program, despite the severe collapse of the national currency, mainly due to the effects of economic sanctions, it is still difficult to understand the calculation, which puts the country in serious economic difficulty, for the construction of a device that can only lead to the aversion of the world powers. If the project is to become, through the possession of atomic weapons, a power capable of driving those countries and groups opposed mainly to Israel and the West, this scheme seems oversized to the real potential of the country, especially in relation to the possibilities of success, and even if the aim was to keep under constant pressure the entire region and threaten the balance in a prolonged war of nerves, this option seems hardly feasible to fears of Tel Aviv, which are unlikely to be still kept at bay for a long time from the U.S.. Certainly this report will only confirm what is already in the hands of the Israeli government with the result of speeding up the preparations for the much-anticipated attack.

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